Forth Road Bridge Closure Survey: Analysis of Commuter Behaviour: Final Findings Report May 2016

No abstract available

Consumer Structure in the Emerging Market for Electric Vehicles: Identifying market segments using cluster analysis

This paper presents results from a segmentation analysis of the emerging market for Electric Vehicles (EVs). Data has been sourced through the application of a self-completion household questionnaire distributed over two cities in the United Kingdom (UK). A two stage cluster analysis methodology has been followed to identify market segments in a dataset of UK drivers. Five unique segments have been identified in the analysis and are characterised by their preferences for EVs, socio-economic characteristics, current car details, and socio-psychological profiles. These segments hold a range of different EV preference levels, from those who appear unwilling to adopt an EV to those which are clearly attracted to EVs. Moreover, the features of these segments tend to suggest that segments might be attracted to or repelled from EVs for different reasons. These results demonstrate that a significant degree of consumer stratification is present in the emerging market for EVs, with the possible implications being that policy interventions at the market, as opposed to segment, level may prove ineffective due to their inability to cater for the nuances of important segments

Smarter choices ?changing the way we travel. Case study reports

This report accompanies the following volume:Cairns S, Sloman L, Newson C, Anable J, Kirkbride A and Goodwin P (2004)Smarter Choices ? Changing the Way We Travel. Report published by theDepartment for Transport, London, available via the ?Sustainable Travel? section ofwww.dft.gov.uk, and from http://eprints.ucl.ac.uk/archive/00001224/

Smarter choices - changing the way we travel

Summary: In recent years, there has been growing interest in a range of initiatives, which are now widelydescribed as 'soft' transport policy measures. These seek to give better information and opportunities,aimed at helping people to choose to reduce their car use while enhancing the attractiveness ofalternatives. They are fairly new as part of mainstream transport policy, mostly relativelyuncontroversial, and often popular. They include:. Workplace and school travel plans;. Personalised travel planning, travel awareness campaigns, and public transport information andmarketing;. Car clubs and car sharing schemes;. Teleworking, teleconferencing and home shopping.This report draws on earlier studies of the impact of soft measures, new evidence from the UK andabroad, case study interviews relating to 24 specific initiatives, and the experience of commercial,public and voluntary stakeholders involved in organising such schemes. Each of the soft factors isanalysed separately, followed by an assessment of their combined potential impact.The assessment focuses on two different policy scenarios for the next ten years. The 'high intensity'scenario identifies the potential provided by a significant expansion of activity to a much morewidespread implementation of present good practice, albeit to a realistic level which still recognisesthe constraints of money and other resources, and variation in the suitability and effectiveness of softfactors according to local circumstances. The 'low intensity' scenario is broadly defined as aprojection of the present (2003-4) levels of local and national activity on soft measures.The main features of the high intensity scenario would be. A reduction in peak period urban traffic of about 21% (off-peak 13%);. A reduction of peak period non-urban traffic of about 14% (off-peak 7%);. A nationwide reduction in all traffic of about 11%.These projected changes in traffic levels are quite large (though consistent with other evidence onbehavioural change at the individual level), and would produce substantial reductions in congestion.However, this would tend to attract more car use, by other people, which could offset the impact ofthose who reduce their car use unless there are measures in place to prevent this. Therefore, thoseexperienced in the implementation of soft factors locally usually emphasise that success depends onsome or all of such supportive policies as re-allocation of road capacity and other measures toimprove public transport service levels, parking control, traffic calming, pedestrianisation, cyclenetworks, congestion charging or other traffic restraint, other use of transport prices and fares, speedregulation, or stronger legal enforcement levels. The report also records a number of suggestionsabout local and national policy measures that could facilitate the expansion of soft measures.The effects of the low intensity scenario, in which soft factors are not given increased policy prioritycompared with present practice, are estimated to be considerably less than those of the high intensityscenario, including a reduction in peak period urban traffic of about 5%, and a nationwide reductionin all traffic of 2%-3%. These smaller figures also assume that sufficient other supporting policies areused to prevent induced traffic from eroding the effects, notably at peak periods and in congestedconditions. Without these supportive measures, the effects could be lower, temporary, and perhapsinvisible.Previous advice given by the Department for Transport in relation to multi-modal studies was that softfactors might achieve a nationwide traffic reduction of about 5%. The policy assumptionsunderpinning this advice were similar to those used in our low intensity scenario: our estimate isslightly less, but the difference is probably within the range of error of such projections.The public expenditure cost of achieving reduced car use by soft measures, on average, is estimated atabout 1.5 pence per car kilometre, i.e. £15 for removing each 1000 vehicle kilometres of traffic.Current official practice calculates the benefit of reduced traffic congestion, on average, to be about15p per car kilometre removed, and more than three times this level in congested urban conditions.Thus every £1 spent on well-designed soft measures could bring about £10 of benefit in reducedcongestion alone, more in the most congested conditions, and with further potential gains fromenvironmental improvements and other effects, provided that the tendency of induced traffic to erodesuch benefits is controlled. There are also opportunities for private business expenditure on some softmeasures, which can result in offsetting cost savings.Much of the experience of implementing soft factors is recent, and the evidence is of variable quality.Therefore, there are inevitably uncertainties in the results. With this caveat, the main conclusion isthat, provided they are implemented within a supportive policy context, soft measures can besufficiently effective in facilitating choices to reduce car use, and offer sufficiently good value formoney, that they merit serious consideration for an expanded role in local and national transportstrategy.AcknowledgementsWe gratefully acknowledge the many contributions made by organisations and individuals consultedas part of the research, and by the authors of previous studies and literature reviews which we havecited. Specific acknowledgements are given at the end of each chapter.We have made extensive use of our own previous work including research by Lynn Sloman funded bythe Royal Commission for the Exhibition of 1851 on the traffic impact of soft factors and localtransport schemes (in part previously published as 'Less Traffic Where People Live'); and by SallyCairns and Phil Goodwin as part of the research programme of TSU supported by the Economic andSocial Research Council, and particularly research on school and workplace travel plans funded bythe DfT (and managed by Transport 2000 Trust), on car dependence funded by the RAC Foundation,on travel demand analysis funded by DfT and its predecessors, and on home shopping funded byEUCAR. Case studies to accompany this report are available at: http://eprints.ucl.ac.uk/archive/00001233

On the estimation of temporal mileage rates

Peer reviewedPostprin

The Governance of Smart Mobility

There is an active contemporary debate about how emerging technologies such as automated vehicles, peer-to-peer sharing applications and the ‘internet of things’ will revolutionise individual and collective mobility. Indeed, it is argued that the so-called ‘Smart Mobility’ transition, in which these technologies combine to transform how the mobility system is organised and operates, has already begun. As with any socio-technical transition there are critical questions to be posed in terms of how the transition is managed, and how both the benefits and any negative externalities of change will be governed. This paper deploys the notion of ensuring and enhancing public value as a key governance aim for the transition. It sets out modes and methods of governance that could be deployed to steer the transition and, through four thematic cases explores how current mobility governance challenges will change. In particular, changing networks of actors, resources and power, new logics of consumption, and shifts in how mobility is regulated, priced and taxed – will require to be successfully negotiated if public value is to be captured from the transition. This is a critical time for such questions to be raised because technological change is clearly outpacing the capacity of systems and structures of governance to respond to the challenges already apparent. A failure to address both the short and longer-term governance issues risks locking the mobility system into transition paths which exacerbate rather than ameliorate the wider social and environmental problems that have challenged planners throughout the automobility transition

Work, ICT and travel in multinational corporations: the synthetic work mobility situation

Theorising the relationships between information communication technology (ICT), travel and work continues to preoccupy researchers interested in multinational corporations (MNCs). One motivation is the desire to understand ways of reducing demand for and the negative consequences of business travel. Existing studies offer, however, little in the way of theoretical explanation of why situations that require travel arise in the first instance and how they might be avoided. To address this shortcoming, this paper analyses two case study engineering consultancy MNCs to develop a novel sociomaterial perspective on the role of travel and ICTs. It introduces the concept of the synthetic work mobility situation which highlights the way ICT and travel exert agency that constitutes ways of working and the organisational form of MNCs. The concept also recasts questions about ways of reducing demand for travel as questions about ways of reconstituting the sociomaterial organisation of the MNC

Developing an index of vulnerability to motor fuel price increases in England

As the outlook for oil prices remains uncertain, this paper develops a method to assess which areas of England would be most vulnerable to future motor fuel price increases. Building on previous research, we define and operationalise three dimensions of vulnerability: exposure (the cost burden of motor fuel), sensitivity (income) and adaptive capacity (accessibility with modes alternative to the car). We exploit unique data sets available in England, including the ‘MOT’ vehicle inspection data and DfT Accessibility Statistics. This allows us to map vulnerability to fuel price increases at a spatially disaggregated level (Lower-layer Super Output Areas), taking into account motor-fuel expenditure for all travel purposes, and the ability of households to shift to other modes of travel. This is an advancement on the ‘oil vulnerability’ indices developed in previous international research

The spatial pattern of demand in the early market for electric vehicles: Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper reports a spatial analysis of Electric Vehicle registrations across the local authorities of the United Kingdom during the early phase of market development. Spatial autocorrelation tests are applied in order to identify any spatial organisation in registrations rates and spatial regression models are specified to consider the effect of socioeconomic, household, and transport system characteristics over registrations. Specific attention is paid to the association between Electric Vehicle registrations and the presence of charging infrastructure to consider if registrations are affected by infrastructure in the immediate and intermediate vicinity. The results of the analysis suggest Electric Vehicle demand exhibits a moderate degree of spatial clustering, which indicates the emergence of lead and laggard markets, and that the spatial variation in Electric Vehicle uptake can be partially explained through other characteristics of the local authorities. Characteristics relating to education level, employment status, income level, population density, dwelling type, household size, car availability, and the presence of Hybrid Electric Vehicles are significant factors in explaining the rate of Electric Vehicle registrations. Moreover, the level of charge point infrastructure installed within a local authority is positively associated with EV demand. From a policy perspective, the results reported in this paper indicate that local conditions are likely to be important in the rate of Electric Vehicle adoption, which may be of use when considering the development of geographically targeted interventions to accelerate Electric Vehicle demand

‘Disruption’ and ‘continuity’ in transport energy systems: the case of the ban on new conventional fossil fuel vehicles

The phasing out of the sale of new conventional petrol and diesel vehicles by a given date is one of a number of potentially disruptive policies that have been announced over the past five years. While the UK has opted for a target year of 2040 other jurisdictions have announced more challenging target dates (2025: Norway, Paris; 2030: Germany; 2032: Scotland) and scope (petrol and diesel, diesel only, non-electric). There is lack of robust analysis that examines the various targets and phase outs in terms of the key trade-offs in improving carbon emissions, air quality, and public health at various scales. There are also important issues around public acceptability, including how people buy cars and vans, how cars and vans need to be sold, accessed and utilised in order to accelerate turnover in the fleet. These need further investigation through the lens of ‘disruption’. This paper investigates a number of alternative futures around the proposed ban on conventional fossil fuelled vehicles in the UK. By doing so it explores how such a strategy/ban can be achieved while maximising ‘co benefits’; what the impacts might be if the Government were more ambitious; how much ‘disruption’ is needed; and what the implications of different consumer acceptability scenarios are. We used established modelling techniques and prospective scenario analysis to explore existing and alternative disruptive strategies with the view to achieve near ‘zero emissions’ and much improved air quality from light duty vehicles by 2050. The results suggest that the existing, relatively unambitious 2040 ban on internal combustion engine cars and vans can be achieved by essentially doing what we are doing anyway (continuous change) whereas more ambitious bans (e.g. 2030, and including hybrids) would require some ‘disruptive’ change within the existing socio-technical system. We conclude by discussing and mapping the policy options in terms of disruption for government, industry and consumers